Following the Money

The 6 Million Myth

Do 6 million people annually visit Laguna? That’s a lot. Some say it’s a highly inflated number. They may be right.

The city’s website says Laguna attracts over 3 million visitors annually, but the 6 million number comes from a Visit Laguna Beach 2007 study estimating 6.13 million visitors annually. The study was based on 600 on-site visitor interviews, 154 Laguna household telephone interviews, and Laguna hotel performance data.

From that small data source we get, viola, over 6 million visitors. That’s some arithmetic. Why is an accurate visitor count important? Well, that number is used to calculate percentages and the economic impact of tourism on Laguna, like the claim that 94% of all visitors are day-trippers. That’s allegedly 5.76 million day-trippers and just 261,000 hotel visitors. It’s also a number used to support growing the size of government in Laguna, including hiring more police. It’s also a number the city doesn’t want to refute because it wants to raise taxes by passing Measure LL, and pour $2 million into the City’s general fund. Slush.

For comparison, in 2015 the Grand Canyon had 5 million visitors, Yellowstone had 3.8 million, Universal Studios had 7 million, and Knots Berry Farm had 3.9 million. Santa Cruz (population 63,000) estimates 4 million visitors, and the lovely city of Coronado (population 30,000) estimates 2 million. Closer to home, Newport Beach (population 87,000) estimates just 7 million visitors and Surf City Huntington Beach (population 199,000) estimates just 3.5 million.

By comparison, 6 million seems ridiculously high for Laguna. It should not be the number bandied about to support increasing the size of local government, or to support raising taxes, or to demonize tourists, allegedly to pay for all the havoc and burden wreaked on City resources by 6 million invaders. The city claims it needs this money for “vital services”, yet page 1 of the city’s own 2015-2017 budget states clearly:

“The General Fund is doing well and the City finds itself in a relatively healthy position with many of the City’s revenues meeting or exceeding levels experienced prior to the recession.” Say what?

In 2015, Los Angeles Times writer David Hansen exposed the 6 million myth. He wrote that “the 6 million-plus visitors equals an average of 16,794 people per day,”…. but spreading the average to the peak summer period and “assigning 75% of the visitors to May through September” we get nearly 30,000 visitors daily. The city says “on a summer day, beach attendance can approach 70,000 individuals.” Really? Hansen does the math and asks “where are they parking?” The city has under 2,000 parking spots in downtown and the canyon. “Even if we count only visitors and are generous with the extended parking, that’s about 20 people per car. Apparently most of the people who drive to Laguna arrive in party buses.”

We need real numbers to help with congestion and encourage transportation methods that don’t involve more cars. With new housing developments beyond our canyon, it’s going to get worse. But, it’s important the city doesn’t use inflated numbers to justify government expansion, and turn Laguna into an overregulated, over-managed, and over-policed town.

Measure LL is a money grab to fill the city’s general coffers that the city has already told you are full. Shouldn’t taxes be raised only when really needed for a funding crisis or for a particular purpose? Measure LL is a slush fund, no matter how the city or councilmembers try to convince you it will only be used for “vital services.” The money has no strings attached, it slushes into the general fund. Promises of an oversight committee and resolutions of intent are nice, but have no binding effect. Voting no on Measure LL will stop the slush fund, force the City to be specific before it asks to raises taxes, and force honesty about whether the true purpose of Measure LL is to float a multi-million dollar revenue bond for an even bigger slush into the general fund.

On a positive note, Visit Laguna Beach has contracted for a new study on tourist estimates, due out in 2017. We look forward to that new study, which hopefully will be more factually substantiated, so that we can plan and act accordingly.

The author, a local resident and attorney, is president of the Laguna Beach Taxpayers’ Association.