Musings on the Coast

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                                  Facing Up to Mexico’s Problem

By Michael Ray
By Michael Ray

 

Mexico has a huge problem and it has nothing to do with Donald Trump’s racist rants. Its problem is the insatiable demand for illegal drugs from its northern neighbor. The Council on Foreign Relations estimates the sale of illegal drugs to the U.S. from Mexico tops $30 billion per year, wholesale. At the street level, it is many times that.

To manage it, Mexican drug cartels employ some 500,000 people in Mexico alone and probably double that at the street level in the United States. The U.S. figures include only U.S. gangs “officially” associated with the Mexican cartels. It does not include your friendly cocaine dealer.

This information is hardly new, but it’s back in the spotlight since the world’s most powerful drug lord, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, escaped from a maximum-security prison in Mexico. He escaped through a “secret” tunnel in the shower section of his cell that ended an entire mile away in a half-built house.

More than 40 years ago President Nixon declared a “war on drugs,” but in Mexico the war was largely neglected. There was an understanding. As long as the narcos killed only each other, in moderation, and paid the appropriate bribes, they would be ignored. This abruptly changed in 2006 with the election of President Felipe Calderon, who pledged to bring on the war. With considerable help from the U.S., Mexico’s military attacked and it became a full-scale shooting war.

The result hit cartel leadership, but with so many billions at stake, ever-more violent subordinates went to war against one another.

Since then, more than 100,000 people have been murdered. And often tortured. Victims have been dismembered, beheaded and stuffed into vats of acid. Turns out the scenes depicting the brutality of the Mexican cartel in the 2012 thriller “Savages,” whose drug-trade protagonists get their start in Laguna Beach, prove closer to truth than fiction.

Victims bodies often are strung from bridges bearing grim notes intended to intimidate locals who don’t cooperate.

A different Mexican president elected in 2012 knew he had to bring peace. That meant establishing a truce with the cartels and reducing their numbers to a manageable level. So the Mexican military, with active U.S. involvement, joined with particular cartels to make war on others. The purpose was not to eliminate drug traffic; the purpose was to stabilize it.

Slowly, the level of violence subsided and El Chapo was one of the beneficiaries. His level of violence was acceptable. Then, 18 months ago and probably by accident, he was arrested. This left an opening for another particularly ruthless rival cartel leader to make his move. Within months, two incidents of public butchery drew international attention.

Last September, 43 students in a rural town demonstrated against cartel violence. The police promptly arrested them and turned them over to a drug gang. The students were never seen again, undoubtedly murdered.

The second happened in March. Aide Nava Gonzalez ran for mayor in a small city near where the 43 students were slaughtered. The year before, her husband, the former mayor, was assassinated by the cartels, and she ran against them in defiance. For her troubles, she was kidnapped, beheaded and her body dumped on a local road. A note was left on her body. It read, “This will happen to all the f…g politicians who do not fall in line,” and was signed by the local drug gang.

The two incidents increased pressure on Mexico’s government to do something.

This much we know. What follows is conjecture.

It is probable El Chapo was “allowed” to escape. The government is desperate and wants him to regain ascendency and control the violence. Mexico’s president conveniently was in Paris during El Chapo’s escape, but sauntered back home and then refused to allow the U.S. to join in the manhunt. Further, it is probable the U.S. knew about it before hand and it was coordinated.

Yes, Mexico has a problem. It stems from our insane anti-drug policies. Prohibition against alcohol did not work and 40 years after launching a “war on drugs,” millions more Americans are in prisons and nothing has changed. The available product is better, cheaper, and more readily available than ever before.

Our demand has created an unstoppable, violent crime machine in Mexico. No U.S. politicians can admit Mexico’s corruption is a certain result, at least not in public. Nor can the Mexican ruling class. To stop the violence, to create peace, Mexico must accept a tolerable level of corruption and violence. And so must the United States. I believe with the escape of El Chapo, both (almost publically) have done exactly that.

And it is a good thing. It is a sign of maturity. It is handling reality.

 

Michael Ray grew up in Corona del Mar and now lives in Laguna Beach.  He makes a living as a real estate entrepreneur and is involved in many non-profits.

 

 

 

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