Competence Is Scarce Spring is here. After sliding into a correction, stocks rebounded in mid-April with three straight up days that prodded the S&P 500 back to a positive number for 2014. Volume was only moderate but trading during Passover and Holy Week always slows. Heavier trading showing institutional demand together with more upside action […]
Singing The Blues Wall Street almost ignored publication of a new book charging widespread irregularities in high-speed trading. After a brief flurry, the market moved up to new all-time highs on both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Regulators were not so blasé and we have not seen the end of these […]
Living With Corrections Stocks are closing the quarter down around 2% for March and breakeven for the year so far. After strong performance in 2013 following a good year in 2012, some loss of momentum is normal. The market’s uptrend has been under increasing pressure for weeks and it appears to be entering a correction. […]
The Catalyst King Stocks sometimes get a catalytic boost from news of a spin-off or of an activist investor buying shares. Like stock splits, there are no immediate changes in the company’s financial status but the prospect of change encourages investors. General Electric (GE-$25), fifth largest position among my portfolios, recently filed documents with the […]
Three For The Road Aftershocks continue from the Financial Crisis and the worldwide Great Recession, which bottomed out five years ago. Their impact was the most severe since the Great Depression. Scars to the global economy were deep and widespread with a lasting impact on investors that is doubtlessly stretching out the global recovery. The […]
Happy Birthday, Bull Market! The bull market in stocks is five years old this week. That certainly does not signal running to the hills, panicked selling never being a successful investment strategy, particularly since stocks have averaged a 26% gain over the year following a five-year anniversary. Averages are of limited use in planning and […]
Higher Altitudes The stock market is flirting with new highs on the S&P 500-stock index. As I wrote two weeks, ago momentum seemed destined to take the market to new highs. The Dow Jones Industrials need about a 300-point rise. That might seem like a lot but it is really less than two percent. What […]
Bounces And Bumps Next month, an array of laser devices mounted on top of high-rise apartment buildings in New Jersey begins operations. Their function is to zip market data 35 miles between the data centers of the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market data center in order to shave a few billionths […]
Seeking Stability After making new highs in mid-January, the stock market lost momentum and dipped six percent. Trading volume increased only moderately, a sign that institutions were not dumping stock. Stocks stumbled for three weeks, and then regained their mojo on increased volume boosting the S&P average to one percent below its year-end close. In […]
Dealing With The Dips Almost halfway through the first quarter and the stock market is making a good effort to regain its footing. The market will come back resume its uptrend at some point; the question is how much further it may sag. Currently, the S&P 500 is off around 5 percent since it made […]
The January Barometer Stocks stumbled in January. As the month ends, the S&P 500 average is down 3%. The “January Barometer,” which holds that as January goes, so goes the full year, would be worrisome if the correlation of this “indicator” with actual market performance were not so mediocre. The correlation is strongest for September, […]
Watching for Market Indicators One “indicator” of future stock market performance is the “Super Bowl Indicator.” A New York Times sportswriter created this “indicator” in 1978. It holds that an up market lies ahead for 2014 if the NFC team wins the Super Bowl. There is no correlation between football and the stock market so […]
After The Streak Ends Stocks stumbled into the New Year, caught their breath and moved back up with the S&P 500 inching above its previous closing high set on December 31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is still 150 points below it record close at yearend but current momentum should bring it also into the […]
Financial Forecasts, Fads & Fashions The New Year invariably inspires financial media commentators to publish their predictions for the next twelve months. The more specific they make them, the less their numbers will match the actual outcomes. The most accurate forecast I’ve seen came from a celebrated Wall Street trader who responded to a question […]
The Santa Claus Rally Santa Claus brought early gifts to stock investors when Chairman Bernanke’s farewell report on Federal Reserve policy announced a very gentle program of reducing its program of buying bonds. The Fed even added a sweetener by extending the period before it will begin to act to tighten short-term interest rates. Stocks […]
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